Divisional Round Preview and Prediction: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have roared to the top of the NFC, securing the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Their opponents, the Washington Commanders, defied expectations with a late-season surge and a thrilling Wild Card Round victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, these two contenders clash at Ford Field on Saturday, January 18th at 8:00 PM EST, with the Lions entering as a 9.5-point favorite and the over/under set at a lofty 55.5. (betonline)
Historical Trends in Divisional Playoff Games
Favorites in the Divisional Round
Since 2002, teams favored by 7.5 points or more in the divisional round have covered the spread 54.2% of the time. This suggests that while favorites generally perform well, upsets are not uncommon in this round. Interestingly, NFL underdogs have covered the spread in half of the 2025 NFL playoff games.
Over/Under Trends
Since 2002, the over has hit in 52.6% of divisional playoff games. This suggests a near-even split between overs and unders historically.
Recent Team Performance
Washington Commanders
The Commanders enter this game with a 12-5 record, defying preseason predictions and finishing second in the NFC East. They advanced to this round with a dramatic 23-20 Wild Card victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, winning on a last-second field goal. Notably, the Commanders have been excellent against the spread this season, boasting an 11-5-1 record. They have been particularly strong as underdogs going 4-2-1 ATS.
Offensively, the Commanders have been led by their impressive rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. Daniels has exceeded expectations, showcasing his dual-threat abilities and leading a balanced attack. The Commanders’ offense ranked seventh in the league during the regular season, averaging 28.5 points per game.
Defensively, the Commanders have been more inconsistent. They have struggled at times to defend well-targeted passes and rely heavily on generating quarterback sacks to disrupt opposing offenses.
Detroit Lions
The Lions have been the most dominant team in the NFC this season, boasting an impressive 15-2 record and securing the conference’s top seed. They earned a first-round bye, giving them extra time to rest and prepare for the playoffs. Despite facing numerous injuries throughout the season, the Lions have consistently found ways to win.
Detroit’s offense has been one of the league’s most potent, ranking second in total yards and points per game. Quarterback Jared Goff has enjoyed a resurgence, throwing for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns. The Lions also possess a formidable rushing attack, led by the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Defensively, the Lions have been solid against the run but vulnerable at times against the pass. They have faced numerous injuries, particularly in their secondary.
Coaching
Both the Commanders and Lions have benefited from strong coaching this season.
Washington Commanders
Head coach Dan Quinn has instilled a culture of resilience and trust within the Commanders. He emphasizes the importance of embracing high-pressure moments and has fostered a belief in the team’s ability to win close games. Quinn has also implemented an aggressive fourth-down strategy, which has been highly effective for the Commanders. They led the league in fourth-down conversion rate (87%) during the regular season.
Detroit Lions
Dan Campbell has established himself as a passionate and demanding leader in Detroit. The Lions have also benefited from the contributions of their coordinators. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been instrumental in designing Detroit’s high-powered offense, while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has kept the defense competitive despite numerous injuries.
Washington Commanders
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | LB | Ankle | Questionable |
| Daron Payne | DT | Finger | Questionable |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | Hamstring | Questionable |
Detroit Lions
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Zeitler | OG | Hamstring | Out |
| Pat O’Connor | DE | Calf | Out |
| Ennis Rakestraw | CB | Hamstring/Illness | Questionable |
Prediction
According to our model this is the most lopsided outcome of the weekend. Our Model predicts a 45-21 Lions win.
We agree with the model. So often, historically, we see teams progress to Super Bowls by knocking on the door the previous year and then kicking the door down the following year. That’s precisely what we see with the Lions.
They waited a year to get back to this spot. They were a 3 point loss to the 49ers away from the Super Bowl last year. This year, we don’t see anyone being able to outscore the Lions in their own building. Their Super Bowl quest starts Saturday and we think they leave no doubt, winning by double digits.