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The stage is set for an intriguing Wild Card matchup on January 12, 2025, at 1:00 PM EST, where the Denver Broncos will travel to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. The Bills come into this game as the favorites with a -8.5 point spread, and the total points expected are set at 46.5. Those lines courtesy of betonline sportsbook.
Our predictive model, utilizing full-season data but discarding the Broncos’ final game against the Chiefs due to its lack of competitive significance for Kansas City, projects a score of Bills 28, Broncos 21.
Offensively, the Bills have been exceptionally efficient this season, leading all playoff teams with an offensive yards per point of 11.3, showcasing their ability to convert yardage into scores effectively. The Broncos, while not as efficient, still rank third with an offensive yards per point of 13, suggesting they too can make the most out of their opportunities but with less consistency than the Bills.
On the defensive side, Denver holds a slight edge. They rank 2nd among playoff teams with a defensive yards per point of 17.3, indicating a strong capability to prevent opponents from scoring. In contrast, the Bills rank 7th with a defensive yards per point of 15.8. This defensive matchup might be where the Broncos could make their mark.
The Bills are entering their sixth consecutive playoff appearance, a testament to their consistent performance over recent years. There’s a strong sentiment around the league that this could be the year Buffalo finally breaks through to deeper playoff success, given their track record and current form. However, they face a formidable challenge in the Broncos, who are well-coached and disciplined under Sean Payton.
Historically, the Bills’ Wild Card games have been closely contested; three of their last five were decided by just three points. Given this context, while the Bills are expected to win, the spread might be a bit too generous. Therefore, with some books offering the Broncos at +9, we see value in taking Denver to cover this number. The Broncos have shown they can compete with top teams, and their defensive prowess could keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
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Our Pick – Broncos +9
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