After a bad start the Minnesota Vikings have won two of their last three games and on Monday night host a 49ers’ team that is banged up and coming off their first loss.
The oddsmakers have the visiting 49ers as the 7-point favorite with the total at 44. The public has been betting this game even, as the odds have not moved since opening as of Friday.
The 49ers (5-1) took their first loss in their last game failing on the road 19-17 to the Cleveland Browns. They failed to cover the spread as an 8.5-point favorite and they had covered in their previous three games.
In their last game the Vikings (2-4) were on the road and beat the Chicago Bears 19-13. They covered as a 3-point favorite and they have covered the spread in two of their last three games.
These teams met last in the 2021 season.
The Vikings have won their last six home games facing the 49ers.
Purdy is Perfect No Longer
Second year QB Brock Purdy was undefeated in the regular season until last week’s loss to the Browns. While he did not play a good game (12-27 125 yards 1 TD 1 INT) he did drive the team in the last series and put them in scoring position but the rookie kicker missed the game winning field goal.
In the loss to Cleveland, San Fran was outgained 334 yards to 215 yards and were only 3-12 on third down. NFL rushing leader Christian McCaffrey left the game with an injury and is listed as questionable for Monday night. The team’s second leading WR Deebo Samuel is also listed as questionable.
The 49ers rank second in the league in scoring (30.7 ppg), third in rushing yards per game, and 13th in passing yards per game. Even not playing well last week Purdy (1,396 yards 10 TD 1 INT) still ranks first in the league in QBR and the pick in the last game was his first of the season.
Yeah, the 49ers struggled on offense in their last game but they were facing a Browns’ defense that ranks fifth in the league only giving up an average of 15.4 ppg. On Monday night they will be facing a Vikings’ D that ranks 21st in points against per game (22.5 ppg) and 17th against the pass and 18th against the run.
Could Use a Good Win
The Vikings have won two of their last three games but the two wins have come against teams that have a grand total of one win.
In the 19-13 win over the Bears in their last game Minnesota was outgained 275 yards to 220 yards, only rushed for 46 yards, and gave up 162 rushing yards but they did force three turnovers.
In the Chicago win Kirk Cousins passed for 181 yards with a TD and no INT, Alexander Mattison rushed for 44 yards only averaging 2.4 yards per carry, and T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborne combined for 98 receiving yards.
Cousins (1.679 yards 14 TD 4 INT) is having a decent season so far ranking 13th in QBR but even with the team under .500 he has stated he will not waive his no trade clause, so he will be staying with the team. Star WR Jordan Jefferson (571 yards 3 TD) missed the last game and will miss the next few on IR with a hamstring injury.
While the Vikings rank in the middle of the pack in scoring and they rank third in passing yards per game they rank third-to-last in the league in rushing yards per game.
The Vikes will be facing a 49ers’ defense that ranks first in scoring defense (14.5 ppg), 10thin pass defense, and sixth in run defense.
Betting Trends
The 49ers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
The 49ers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games facing the Vikings.
The Vikings are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
In the Vikings last six games the total has gone Under five times.
PICK – VIKINGS +7