Tennessee Titans (7-3 4-6 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3 6-4 ATS)
First place in the AFC South is up for grabs in this game between a couple of teams that are coming off big wins when the Indianapolis Colts play host to the Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game with the total sitting at 51.
The total has gone up a little since opening but the line has not changed.
The Titans are coming off a big 30-24 OT win over the Baltimore Ravens where they came back from a double-digit second-half deficit. In the game, before beating Baltimore they were at home and lost to the Colts 34-17, so they look for a little payback this Sunday.
The Colts have won two in a row and four of their last five games and in their last game beat the Green Bay Packers 34-31 in OT. The defense forced four turnovers in the game and that defense has been solid on the season. In their recent win over the Titans their offense came through as well outgaining Tennessee 430 yards to 294 yards.
The Colts have covered the spread in four of their last five games facing the Titans and have covered in seven of their last nine games facing them at home.
Big Time Comeback
After going down 21-10 with 9:32 left in the third quarter the Titans scored 13 unanswered points to beat the Ravens in OT. Derrick Henry scored the game-winner on a 29 yards TD run and the league’s leading rusher had 133 yards in the game. He rushed for 103 yards in. the loss to Indy the game before and he needs to be big against the Colts.
Ryan Tannehill had a good game against Baltimore but not so much against the Colts in the previous game. While he had a TD and was not picked off he was 15/27 for only 147 yards.
Besides Tannehill playing better the Tennessee pass defense has to play better than the recent game against the Colts where they gave up nearly 300 passing yards.
Turnovers Turn the Tide
In their 34-31 OT win over the Packers, the Colts forced four turnovers including a huge one in overtime, which set up their game-winning field goal.
While the Colts gave up 301 passing yards in the Green Bay game they stuffed the run and their run D will, obviously, be key facing Henry.
Phillip Rivers played well in the win over the Packers with three TD and one INT and he passed for over 300 yards in the recent win over Tennessee.
Jonathan Taylor rushed for 90 yards in the last game but only had 12 rushing yards on 12 carries in the win over the Colts. Taylor and Nyheim Hines, who only had six rushing yards last week but 70 against the Colts, have to help Rivers out.
The Indy defense did allow Henry to rush for 103 yards in the win over them this season but kept Tannehill from getting it going. Can they follow the same blueprint for this game? Big question, but if they can they will really take control of the AFC South with a one-game lead over them and holding the tiebreaker to boot.
Prediction
The Titans had failed to cover in four straight road games before doing so in the win over the Ravens. The Colts have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as a home favorite.
I have to go with the Titans and the points in this one. They lost by 17 at home to the Colts but this game will be much closer. I look for Henry and Tannehill to play well but I look for Rivers to have another solid game under center. Indy may get the W at home but Tennessee is the pick to cover getting four points.
PICK: Titans +3