Kansas City Chiefs (9-1 6-4 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4 5-6 ATS)
In a marquee matchup in the Sunshine State the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won five in a row. The Chiefs are a 3.5-point road favorite in this non-conference game with the total sitting at 56.
The public money has slightly been on the Chiefs in this game, as they opened as a 3-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 3.5-point favorite.
After winning two in a row the Bucs have lost two of their last three games. They lost to the L.A. Rams 27-24 in their last game where Tom Brady was picked off, as the team was marching down the field to try to win or tie the game.
The Chiefs avenged their lone loss on the season with a 35-31 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in their last game. Patrick Mahomes led the team on a late comeback and the team is clicking.
In the loss to the Rams Brady struggled with the pressure by the L.A. pass rush. KC needs to pressure the GOAT but that pass rush has struggled this season even though the team shelled out big money to sign DE Frank Clark and DT Chris Jones. They have only combined for 9.5 sacks this season and in the win, over Las Vegas, the Chiefs only had one QB hit and no sacks.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games facing a team with a winning record.
More Mahomes Magic
In the Chiefs’ win over the Raiders in their last game the team was down three with 1:43 to play. Then Mahomes did his thing marching his team down the field and threw the game-winning TD pass to Travis Kelse with only 28 seconds remaining.
While the Chiefs won the last game they did give up 31 points, their pass rush was not good, and they were penalized 10 times for 89 yards.
Mahomes is the MVP front-runner and has passed for 3,035 yards with 27 TD and only 2 INT. he has a slew of weapons such as Kelse, Tyreek Hill, and rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Edwards-Helaire has taken over as the lead back and has not only rushed for 655 yards averaging a legit 4.7 yards per carry but also has 29 catches for 232 yards.
The Tampa Bay defense is a good one, but they have given up over 400 yards in the two losses in their last three games.
Arians Pushing the Buttons
Recently Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians came out and called out Tom Brady for the Bucs recent struggles. Good call or bad move? Brady was picked off twice in the Bucs 27-24 loss in their last game and has five picks in the last three games. While the GOAT has 25 TD and 9 INT on the season in Tampa’s four losses he has 5 TD and 7 INT.
Brady did not get much help from the run game in the loss to the Rams, as the team only rushed for 42 yards. In the two losses in the last three games, the team has only rushed for 50 yards while in the lone win in that span they rushed for 210 yards. Ronald Jones Jr. leads the Bucs with 754 yards but in four of his last five games, he has failed to rush for over 34 yards.
The WR corps is a solid and deep one and the team has Gronk, but the O-line needs to protect Brady and the run game needs to pitch in.
The Chiefs played the run well in the win over Las Vegas but the pass not so much. However, on the season the run D has been the weakness of the unit giving up an average of 133.5 rushing yards per game.
Prediction
The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss and the Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up loss.
Tough to pick against the Chiefs but that is what I am going to do. All four of the Bucs losses have come in primetime games, which this one is not. I see Brady having a big game and the Tampa Bay defense stepping up. This game will be a close game with each great QB playing well and while the Bucs may not get the W they will cover giving 3.5 points.
PICK: Buccaneers +3.5