Chicago Bears (5-5 5-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (7-3 6-4 ATS)
The reeling Chicago Bears head to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field as big underdogs facing the Green Bay Packers in a Sunday night primetime NFC North matchup. The Packers are an 8.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 45.
The Bears have lost four in a row and the main reason has been their offense. The team ranks second to last in the league in ppg (19.1 ppg) and in their four-game skid are only averaging 15.8 ppg.
Not only do the Bears have major issues on offense but at the QB position as well. The team is coming off a bye but starter Nick Foles, who ranks 28th in QBR, was injured in the last game and is questionable for this one. If he cannot go Mitchell Trubisky will be back as the starter even though he has an injured shoulder.
The Packers are coming off a 34-31 OT loss to the Indianapolis Colts, which snapped their two-game win streak. They still are in the driver’s seat in the NFC North as the only team in the division with a winning record and with a W in this game can really take control.
The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, who has guided an offense that ranks third in the league in ppg. However, turnovers killed the team in their last game and they have only one win this season facing a team with a winning record.
This is the first game between these division rivals, which is the oldest rivalry in the NFL, and they face each other in the Windy City in the season finale.
The Packers beat the Bears twice last season and they have covered the spread in 14 of their last 19 games facing them.
Offense Fails to Show Up
In the Bears’ last game they lost to the Minnesota Vikings where they only had 149 yards of total offense.
Chicago ranks 25th in the league in passing yards per game and dead last in rushing yards per game. The team’s leading rusher in David Montgomery has been cleared to play after a concussion but he is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry and has failed to rush for over 48 yards in four of his last six games.
Allen Robinson II has 756 receiving yards while the next leading target has 351 receiving yards.
Last season in the two wins over the Bears the Packers’ defense only gave up 16 points.
Turnovers Kill
In the OT loss to the Colts the Green Bay D gave up 420 yards and their offense turned the ball over four times. The last turnover was a fumble on the first drive in OT deep in Green Bay territory, which basically gave the Colts the W.
Rodgers passed for 311 yards with 3 TD and one pick and two of his four INT on the season have come in the last two games. Davante Adams leads Green Bay with 847 receiving yards and he has at least 106 yards in two of his last three games.
The Bears only have 21 sacks on the season and Khalil Mack (6.5 sacks) and the pass rush cannot give Rodgers time in the pocket.
The Green Bay run game has faltered in the last few games and lead back Aaron Jones has only averaged 40 rushing yards per game in the last four games.
The Bears’ defense has played well and they need to play great in this game. They are not only facing Rodgers and the dynamic Packers’ offense, but the Chicago offense will not help out much.
Prediction
The Bears are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after a straight-up loss.
The Packers followed up their first two losses by winning their next two games by 15 points and 17 points respectively. I look for that trend to continue in this game coming after their third loss. The Bears will give Rodgers a game on D but he will still get it done and be helped by the run game for a change. It will be the same old song and dance for the Chicago offense, as they will struggle mightily no matter who is under center. Green Bay will easily win this game and cover the spread.
PICK: Packers -9