NFL
Week 14
Picks
against the Spread
12/7/14
We’re at the point in this NFL season where we can discard a number of Games each week right off the bat. We have no interest in playing Games between teams that are just playing out their Schedule. For example, is there any reason to waste time digging into the Giants/Titans Game? Can you trust either squad with your hard earned money? Nah. So below, we’ll focus on the Games with teams that at least still have a pulse.
Ravens/Dolphins UNDER 45.5 – Hard to trust the Dolphins laying points when they had trouble putting away the hapless Jets. But their “D” has been playing well and this might be a very good spot for the Ravens oNCe great “D” to get back on track. We’ll go under the total here.
Bengals -3 over Steelers – Steelers simply aren’t a good football team folks. This is a team that has lost to the Bucs, Browns and Jets and has barely gotten by the Titans and Jags. The 8-3 Bengals return home after 3 consecutive road wins and are in a good spot to put some distaNCe between them and these Steelers who they will have to face oNCe more this year. Neither team much to write home about offensively but one of these teams has a decent defense, and it’s NOT the Steelers.
Colts -3.5 over Browns – Can’t play a team having QB problems when they’re going up against a team with one of the better QB’s in the Game today.
Broncos -9.5 over Bills – We don’t talk strength of Schedule much when handicapping NFL Games, but this might be a spot we need to. The Bills actually have better yards per point numbers than the Broncos and even Our model, when using only the last 7 Games, has the Bills covering this spot. But we’d have to point to a couple of Games where the Bills stepped up in class this year, and there was literally only a couple, the Pats and Chargers. Two teams with an offensive pulse. The Chargers beat the Bills by 12 and the Pats won 37-22. Both of those Games for the Bills were on the road, as this one is and we see a similar outcome. Too much offense and too much Peyton.
Cardinals +1 over Chiefs – A couple of similar teams in off similar results. Both have lost their last two Games and each lost to a team they shouldn’t have. These two are among the best defensively in the League, ranking #1 and #3 when using yards per point to rank the defense. Under 40 is also worth a look in this one. Siding with the 9-3 Cards simply because they are perfect at home this year. KC in near must win situation, but teams that “must” win, don’t always do so.
Eagles -1 over Seahawks – These two have identical defensive yards per point numbers of 15.5, which is slightly better than average. However, it took back to back Games giving up only 3 points in each, against a couple of teams with offensive problems, for the Seahawks to reach that number. The Eagles have no offensive problems. The Seahawks figure to have trouble going toe to toe here and keeping up offensively.
Patriots -3.5 over Chargers – Chargers on a little roll, but against the Raiders, Rams and Ravens. Brady and the Pats are a different animal, especially when coming off a loss. Our model has the Pats by a couple of TD’s when using only the last 7 Games worth of data.