Memphis at Minnesota Game 6 Picks – 4/29/22

Memphis will visit Minnesota tonight for game 6 of their 1st round NBA playoff series. The Grizzlies hold a 3-2 advantage in the series and will look to close it out on the road. No easy task.

Memphis is favored by -1.5 with a total of 229 at betonline sportsbook. Below are some current series stats followed by prediction from our model.

head-to-head history (playoffs):   
  
 4/26/2022  Minnesota               109  + 6.0  at Memphis                 111
 4/23/2022  Memphis                 118  - 3.0  at Minnesota               119
 4/21/2022  Memphis                 104  - 1.5  at Minnesota                95
 4/19/2022  Minnesota                96  + 7.0  at Memphis                 124
 4/16/2022  Minnesota               130  + 6.5  at Memphis                 117
  
   average outcome:
     Memphis                114.8  Minnesota              109.8
     margin =  -5.00
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Memphis                114.8  Minnesota              109.8
     margin =  -5.00
  
   average result when the home team is Minnesota              
     Memphis                111.0  Minnesota              107.0
     margin =  -4.00
  
   average result when the home team is Memphis                
     Minnesota              111.7  Memphis                117.3
     margin =   5.67
  
    44.44 % of games went Over
    43.90 % went Over at Minnesota              
  
   average total points per game = 224.60
   time-weighted average total   = 224.60
  
   the home team covered  40.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.20
  
   the favorite  covered  40.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.20
  
   the favorite won SU    60.00 % of the time
  
   Memphis                 covered  40.00 % of the time
   Minnesota               covered  60.00 % of the time
  
   Minnesota               covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Minnesota               covered  50.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Model Predictions

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
   
  
Memphis                   -1.0         120           
Minnesota                228.5         122
  
Memphis                   -1.0         108           
Minnesota                228.5         118
  
Memphis                   -1.0         117           
Minnesota                228.5         122

We are also playing this game to go under the 1st half total of 111.5

Good Luck!