To start today, let us first apologize for a typo yesterday. In the Bosox Phillies write up, we suggested the UNDER. However, hopefully it was obvious by Our write up that we mean OVER. That makes Monday a 2-2 day losing just $3. So let’s take a look at some potential value plays for Tuesday. Looks like a decent card with Lou Piniella returning to Tampa Bay with his Cubs to take on the Devil Rays and all eyes on the Mets to see how they respond to the firing of Willie Randolph.
Cubs +130 at Devil Rays – Very hard to pass up a team winning 63% of their Games when you can get them at +130 or so. It’s a long term winning proposition you simply have to take. True, they face another hot team, the surprising Devil Rays, but we don’t believe the difference in the two is -140. The price is the result of the Rays 22-4 record at home since late April as well as sending Kazmir to the Hill, 6-2 with an ERA of 1.74. But the Cubs counter with Dempster, 8-2 with an ERA of 2.81 and have been playing better ball on the road lately, taking their last two road series. The Cubs are worth a shot here.
Cardinals -132 over Royals – Generally we won’t lay more than -130 on a Game, and this line is dropping so -130 or better figures to be available by Game time. Something has to give here as both teams have won 2 in a row. The more likely streak to end, would be the Royals here. They are a last place team, once again among the worst in baseball, with a road record of 15-24 and the Cards have owned them since interleague play began. The pitching match up is irrelevant since once the Cards get to the Royals bull pen, it should be Game over. These teams, even without Pujols are like night and day. So we’ll take a shot laying the price with the Cards tonight.
Angels -110 over Mets – The firing of a manager can work for, or against a team. Will the Mets respond positively to the firing of Willie Randolph? Time will tell, but taking the field less than 24 hOurs after Willie got the ax figures to me more of a distraction than anything else here. The pitching matchup is a wash here, with Santana for the Mets and Lackey for the Angels. So we are simply going with the better all around team here, looking for them to bounce back from yesterdays loss at a fair price of -110. We feel the problem with the Mets goes much deeper than Willie Randolph and the firing figures to have a negative impact, at least in the immediate future.
Marlins +133 at Mariners – We come back with the Marlins again for the very same reasons we took them yesterday. The price is right. The Marlins are having a solid year, while the Mariners are not a very good team and are on a 4 Game losing streak with nothing going right. The way the Mariners are playing right now, they do not deserve to be favored over anyone and certainly not by a price of -143 or so.
The will do it for Tuesday. We are on all solid teams today, at very fair prices with a couple of dogs, a very small -110 favorite and laying a little higher than we prefer -133 with the Cards. So it’s a solid card. Of course, that means nothing short term. But it’s the kind of card you feel comfortable with over the long haul.