On Friday, January 10th, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, will host the College Football Playoff semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns. This matchup isn’t just about bragging rights; it’s a battle for a spot in the national championship game.
Current Betting Lines:
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Spread: Ohio State is favored by -6 points (betonline)
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Over/Under: The total for this game is 53.5
Recent Performance Analysis:
Our predictive model, focusing on the last seven games of each team, forecasts a close game with a margin that matches the current spread. It has Ohio State on top with a score of 20-14. This model takes into account the late-season form, where both teams have shown distinct identities:
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Ohio State has been on a dominant run, particularly on defense, allowing an average of just 12.1 points per game over this stretch. Their offense, led by quarterback Will Howard, has been efficient, with a significant emphasis on a balanced attack. The Buckeyes’ rushing game has been particularly effective, boasting a +2.4 yards per rush attempt differential, which speaks to the strength of their offensive line and running backs like TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
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Texas has had a more volatile postseason, highlighted by a double-overtime thriller against Arizona State. Their offense, quarterbacked by Quinn Ewers, has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with inconsistency. The Longhorns’ run game, while potent, lags slightly behind Ohio State with a +1.3 yards per rush attempt differential. However, Texas’s defense has moments of brilliance, particularly in creating turnovers, which could be key in this matchup.
Key Player Matchups:
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Will Howard vs. Texas Secondary: Howard’s ability to manage the game and make big plays when needed will be crucial. Texas’s secondary, without being elite, has shown capability in critical moments.
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Quinn Ewers vs. Ohio State’s Pass Rush: Ewers’ pocket presence will be tested against one of the best pass rushes in college football. His ability to avoid sacks and make quick decisions could be the difference-maker.
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Rushing Battle: This game could very well be decided on the ground. Ohio State’s advantage in yards per rush attempt differential suggests they might control this aspect, but Texas’s running backs, especially if they can exploit any defensive lapses, could keep this game competitive.
Our Picks
While we think Ohio State wins this game, the stronger play here might be the total. Specifically UNDER 53.5. Our model has three different predictions using different time frame parameters and all 3 predict this game to be low scoring.
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1/2 unit Ohio State -6
1/2 unit Ohio State Moneyline -230
1 unit UNDER 53.5
1 unit UNDER 53.5