In what promises to be a thrilling encounter, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions are set to square off in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl. With both teams showcasing some of the season’s most dominant performances, this matchup is not just a game; it’s a narrative of resurgence, rivalry, and the relentless pursuit of a national championship.
The Matchup:
Notre Dame enters the game as the slight -2 point favorite at betonline. The Irish, under the leadership of Marcus Freeman, have turned around from an early season hiccup to become one of the most consistent teams in college football. Notre Dame’s offense, led by quarterback Riley Leonard, has been particularly potent on the ground, leading the nation with a +2.5 yards per rush attempt differential. This statistic speaks volumes about their offensive line’s ability to open up lanes and the agility of their running backs, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who have been instrumental in their success.
On the other side, Penn State has proven to be no slouch. Their path through the playoffs has been marked by decisive victories, showcasing the strategic acumen of coach James Franklin. The Nittany Lions boast a top-tier defense, particularly in stopping the run, which is crucial given Notre Dame’s rushing prowess. They are not far behind in the yards per rush attempt differential, sitting at +2.2, making this matchup a battle of two of the best rushing teams in the country. Penn State’s offense hinges on the arm of Drew Allar and the dynamic duo of running backs, Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who have combined for over 2,000 rushing yards this season.
Key Matchups to Watch:
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Quarterback Duel: The contest between Riley Leonard and Drew Allar could very well dictate the game’s pace. Leonard’s dual-threat capability against Allar’s precision passing will be a fascinating watch, especially in how each manages the pressure from the opposing defenses.
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Rushing Attack vs. Run Defense: Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball effectively against Penn State’s formidable front seven will be pivotal. Conversely, if Penn State can neutralize Notre Dame’s run game, it might force Leonard into more passing situations, potentially exposing Notre Dame’s less acclaimed passing attack.
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Defensive Backfields: Both teams have shown capability in generating turnovers, but Notre Dame’s secondary, with standout Xavier Watts, has been particularly effective at intercepting passes. How Penn State’s receivers, especially tight end Tyler Warren, navigate this challenge could decide the game’s outcome.
Predictions and Analysis:
Our predictive model suggests a closely contested game, with Notre Dame edging out Penn State by a score of 21-16. The total for the game is 45, indicating expectations of a defensive struggle where points will be hard-earned.
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Notre Dame’s Strategy: They should lean into their strength with a balanced offensive approach but with a heavy emphasis on running plays to control the clock and keep Penn State’s offense off the field.
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Penn State’s Game Plan: The Nittany Lions will need to force Notre Dame into a one-dimensional offense by stopping the run. On offense, utilizing Allar’s short to mid-range passing game while mixing in enough runs to keep the defense honest might help them score in bursts.
Additional Notes:
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Injuries: Both teams have had their share of injury concerns. For Notre Dame, the absence of key defensive players like Riley Mills has been notable, whereas Penn State’s defense might still miss the full impact of Abdul Carter if his injury status remains uncertain.
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Historical Context: This game marks another chapter in a storied rivalry, with the series tied at 9-9-1. The last meeting in 2007 was a Penn State victory, adding a layer of historical motivation to this contest.
Our Pick:
This should be a great game but when the dust clears we think Notre Dame is the one still standing. We mentioned above that Notre Dame was #1 in yards per rush attempt differential. They are also #1 in defensive yards per point allowed and #2 in offensive yards per point allowed.
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Also note that the Irish achived those rankings against a slightly more difficut schedule than Penn State played.
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We’ll take Notre Dame -2 and we’ll also play this game to go UNDER the total of 45.
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