Big 12 Title Hopes on the Line as Kansas State Hosts Arizona State
This Saturday in Manhattan, Kansas, the No. 20 Kansas State Wildcats (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) host the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) in a crucial late-season matchup with major implications for the Big 12 title race. Kansas State enters as an 8-point favorite (MyBookie) at home, but our model predicts a closer contest, with the Wildcats edging out the Sun Devils 29-22.
High Stakes in the Big 12
With just a couple of games remaining in the regular season, the Big 12 race is a tight one. Four teams, including Kansas State and Arizona State, sit at 4-2 in conference play, chasing 5-1 Colorado and undefeated BYU. This game essentially amounts to a playoff game, with the loser facing a significant uphill battle to reach the Big 12 Championship.
Why Kansas State Can Win
The Wildcats boast a balanced offense. Their defense has been solid, ranking 21st nationally in yards per rush attempt. Playing at home in front of a passionate crowd at Bill Snyder Family Stadium gives them a significant advantage.
They also rank 5th in the nation in yards per rush attempt differential at +2.1.
Why Arizona State Can Cover
While Arizona State faces a tough challenge on the road, they have the offensive firepower to keep this game close.
They also own a yards per rush attempt differential of +1.1, good for 27th nationally, which isn’t too shabby.
Our model predicts a 29-22 Kansas State win, and we like Arizona State +8 to cover the spread.
Key Factors
- Turnover Battle: Both teams have been relatively careful with the football this season. Winning the turnover battle could be decisive. Arizona State is +7 in turnover margin and Kanasas State is +2.
- Kansas State’s Home Field Advantage: Bill Snyder Family Stadium is known for its raucous atmosphere. Can Arizona State handle the environment?
Our Prediction
While we expect a hard-fought game, our model favors Kansas State to win at home. However, we believe Arizona State will keep it close enough to cover the 8-point spread.
This is a playoff game and we expect playoff intensity from both sides here. You don’t get to be 7-2, as both teams are, without doing a lot of things right.
Expect a thriller decided late.
Our Pick – Arizona State +8