Friday Night Showdown: Arizona Wildcats at Kansas State Wildcats – A Deeper Dive
The Stage is Set:
Friday night, September 13th, will see the Arizona Wildcats (2-0) make their way into the heart of Big 12 country to take on the Kansas State Wildcats (2-0) under the lights in Manhattan. With an 8 PM EST kickoff, this primetime matchup has the potential for fireworks. The Wildcats of Kansas State enter as 7-point favorites (betonline), with the total set at 56.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair.
Unmasking the Wildcats: Arizona’s Early Season Conundrum
While sitting at a clean 2-0, Arizona’s victories against FCS opponents Northern Arizona (22-10) and New Mexico (61-39) haven’t exactly inspired confidence. Conceding 39 points to a New Mexico team that lost to an FCS school this season is a red flag. It’s worth noting that Northern Arizona was also a .500 team last year. The question lingers: is this the same Arizona team that closed last season with six straight wins?
Kansas State: Steady, But Not Spectacular
Kansas State, too, has notched two victories, albeit against less-than-stellar competition. A 41-6 dismantling of UT Martin (FCS) was followed by a solid 34-27 road win against Tulane. The Tulane victory is certainly encouraging, but it’s not enough to definitively gauge their potential.
The Tale of the Tape: Last Season’s Echoes
Entering the 2024 season, Arizona appeared to be the team to watch. Returning eight offensive starters and seven on defense from a 10-3 team, their potential seemed sky-high. Meanwhile, Kansas State, though coming off a respectable 9-4 season, returned only four offensive starters. The discrepancy in returning talent seemed to tilt the scales in Arizona’s favor.
The X-Factor: Coaching and Scheme Adaptation
Arizona’s less-than-stellar start can perhaps be attributed to the adjustment period under new coach Brent Brennan and his staff. Two games may not be enough to fully implement new schemes and philosophies. With their Big 12 opener on the horizon, expect the Wildcats to be more in sync and ready to showcase their true potential.
The Model’s Verdict: A Tight Contest
Running a predictive model using data from last season and the first two games of this season, we get a projected score of Kansas State 34, Arizona 31. It suggests a nail-biter, and that’s where the betting value lies.
The Pick: Arizona +7
While Kansas State’s home-field advantage and early-season momentum can’t be ignored, we believe the line is inflated. The Arizona team that finished 10-3 last year is still in there somewhere. Expect them to rise to the occasion in their Big 12 debut.