LSU will look to bounce back from their embarrassing 40-13 home loss to Tennessee last week when they head to Florida to take on the Gators. Florida is currently favored by 2.5 with a total of 50.5 at GTBets.
LSU has held the upper hand in this serries recently going 7-2 over the last 9 games. During that stretch every game but one was decided by one score with the average score 28-25 in favor of LSU. The margin in games at Florida was 26-26.
Head to Head
10/16/2021 Florida 42 -12.0 at L.S.U. 49
12/12/2020 L.S.U. 37 +23.0 at Florida 34
10/12/2019 Florida 28 +14.0 at L.S.U. 42
10/ 6/2018 L.S.U. 19 - 2.0 at Florida 27
10/ 7/2017 L.S.U. 17 + 2.0 at Florida 16
11/19/2016 Florida 16 +14.5 at L.S.U. 10
10/17/2015 Florida 28 + 7.0 at L.S.U. 35
10/11/2014 L.S.U. 30 - 2.0 at Florida 27
10/12/2013 Florida 6 + 7.5 at L.S.U. 17
10/ 6/2012 L.S.U. 6 - 2.5 at Florida 14
10/ 8/2011 Florida 11 +13.5 at L.S.U. 41
10/ 9/2010 L.S.U. 33 + 6.5 at Florida 29
10/10/2009 Florida 13 - 8.0 at L.S.U. 3
10/11/2008 L.S.U. 21 + 6.0 at Florida 51
10/ 6/2007 Florida 24 + 9.0 at L.S.U. 28
10/ 7/2006 L.S.U. 10 + 2.5 at Florida 23
10/15/2005 Florida 17 + 6.5 at L.S.U. 21
10/ 9/2004 L.S.U. 24 + 4.0 at Florida 21
10/11/2003 Florida 19 + 9.0 at L.S.U. 7
10/12/2002 L.S.U. 36 + 9.5 at Florida 7
10/ 6/2001 Florida 44 -12.0 at L.S.U. 15
10/ 7/2000 L.S.U. 9 +15.0 at Florida 41
10/ 9/1999 Florida 31 -14.0 at L.S.U. 10
10/10/1998 L.S.U. 10 +12.5 at Florida 22
10/11/1997 Florida 21 -14.0 at L.S.U. 28
10/12/1996 L.S.U. 13 +19.5 at Florida 56
10/ 7/1995 Florida 28 - 8.0 at L.S.U. 10
10/ 8/1994 L.S.U. 18 +26.5 at Florida 42
10/ 9/1993 Florida 58 -14.0 at L.S.U. 3
10/10/1992 L.S.U. 21 +14.5 at Florida 28
10/ 5/1991 Florida 16 -22.0 at L.S.U. 0
10/ 6/1990 L.S.U. 8 +12.0 at Florida 34
average outcome:
L.S.U. 19.7 Florida 27.3
margin = 7.59
time-weighted average outcome:
L.S.U. 31.5 Florida 28.8
margin = -2.72
average result when the home team is Florida
L.S.U. 19.5 Florida 29.5
margin = 10.00
average result when the home team is L.S.U.
Florida 25.1 L.S.U. 19.9
margin = -5.19
44.44 % of games went Over
46.15 % went Over at Florida
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 47.03
time-weighted average total = 60.26
the home team covered 40.00 % of the time
the road team covered 60.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.57
the favorite covered 43.33 % of the time
the underdog covered 56.67 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.80
the favorite won SU 65.63 % of the time
L.S.U. covered 46.67 % of the time
Florida covered 53.33 % of the time
Florida covered 43.75 % of the time at home
Florida covered 38.46 % of the time as home favorites
Despite last weeks loss to the Vols, LSU is still in the thick of things in the SEC West with a 2-1 record, trailing only Alabama and Ole Miss who are both undefeated. The Gators on the other hand have their backs against the wall. They sit at 1-2 in the SEC East and a loss here would likely be the final nail in the coffin for Florida. As it is, there’s no way they’re catching Georgia or Tennessee anyways.
Our Pick
We expect a much better effort from the Tigers this week. This LSU team isn’t as bad as they looked last week. There’s some desperation here on both sides. At this point, neither one of them is going to factor into the SEC title picture so it amounts to both teams jockeying for the best bowl birth they can get with both teams sitting at 4-2.
There’s no shortage of close games between these two teams and for that matter there’s no shortage of close games this year when these two play legitimate opponents. Heck, the Gators played a close game with South Florida.
Our model has it tight as well so we’ll grab +3 and lay a little extra juice if we can’t get a straight 3.