Iowa State will host Baylor on Saturday September 24th with kickoff scheduled for 12 noon est. The game opened at pk at CIRCA las Vegas and now sits at Iowa State -2.5 across the board. The total at betonline is 46.
Very similar situation for these two teams in that both were tested once this year while also playing two cupcakes. Baylor’s test came against BYU in a game they lost on the road in OT, 26-20. Iowa State’s test also came on the road, at Iowa, however in the Cyclones case, they came away with a 10-7 win.
Historically Close
There’s been no shortage of close games in the recent history of this series with 4 of the last 6 decided by 7 points or less and 3 of the last 6 decided by 3 points or less. Last year was one such game with Baylor coming away with a 31-29 home win.
Iowa State scored first last year but Baylor tIed it and then pulled ahead and never looked back. The Bears led at one point by a score of 28-16. The Cyclones fought back and scored with 24 seconds remaining to come within two but they were stopped on the two point conversion.
While the score was close on the scoreboard it wasn’t all that close statistically. It was actually Iowa State who won the stat battle. Total yardage favored Iowa State 479 to 282. Yards per play 6.6 to 5.4. First downs 27 to 15. Time of possession 36 to 24. Not the kind of statistical edge you’d expect from the team that lost.
Here is a look at the recent history between these two teams.
head-to-head history (lined games): 9/25/2021 Iowa State 29 - 7.0 at Baylor 31 11/ 7/2020 Baylor 31 +14.0 at Iowa State 38 9/28/2019 Iowa State 21 - 2.5 at Baylor 23 11/10/2018 Baylor 14 +16.5 at Iowa State 28 11/18/2017 Iowa State 23 - 7.5 at Baylor 13 10/ 1/2016 Baylor 45 -17.0 at Iowa State 42 10/24/2015 Iowa State 27 +37.0 at Baylor 45 9/27/2014 Baylor 49 -21.5 at Iowa State 28 10/19/2013 Iowa State 7 +33.0 at Baylor 71 10/27/2012 Baylor 21 + 2.5 at Iowa State 35 10/ 8/2011 Iowa State 26 +15.5 at Baylor 49 10/17/2009 Baylor 10 + 1.0 at Iowa State 24 10/11/2008 Iowa State 10 + 4.5 at Baylor 38 10/ 8/2005 Baylor 23 + 9.0 at Iowa State 13 10/23/2004 Iowa State 26 - 8.0 at Baylor 25 9/29/2001 Baylor 0 +14.5 at Iowa State 41 9/30/2000 Iowa State 31 -12.0 at Baylor 17 10/25/1997 Baylor 17 - 6.0 at Iowa State 24 10/26/1996 Iowa State 21 + 7.5 at Baylor 49
Our model is not going to be much help for another couple of weeks. Again, we need a minimum 4 games worth of data. At the moment, we are mixing in data from last year with this years stats.
Nonetheless, we’ll take a look at the prediction.
Baylor 46. 19 Iowa State -2.5 22 Baylor 46. 11 Iowa State -2.5 20 Baylor 46. 19 Iowa State -2.5 17
As you can see, a close low scoring game is predicted. Makes sense. Both of these defenses have been playing great while both teams had to replace QB’s and RB’s on the offense.
These teams have traded wins the last 4 times they have played with the home team coming away with the win in each instance. Historically the home team has covered at a 68% clip in this series and we see no reason for that not to continue here.
A little revenge motive never hurts either. We have the home team with a small spot to cover in what is likely a game that goes to the wire.