Purdue will host Michigan State on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM EST in what amounts to a huge Big 10 game for both programs. The Spartans are -3 point road favorites with a total of 53.
Michigan State comes into this game undefeated and ranked #5 in the nation. A win this week and then next week against Maryland would set up a monumental clash with the Buckeyes on November 20th. But first things first.
Purdue comes into this game at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in conference play. Fortunately for the Boilermakers, they are in the Big 10 West. Purdue is still very much in the picture in terms of the Big 10 title game.
It’s worth noting that Purdue took on #2 and undefeated Iowa a few weeks back, at Iowa and came away with a 24-7 win. The Boilermakers are no strangers to big games in 2021.
Michigan State – Purdue Head to Head
10/27/2018 Purdue 13 + 1.0 at Michigan State 23
10/ 3/2015 Purdue 21 +23.0 at Michigan State 24
10/11/2014 Michigan State 45 -21.0 at Purdue 31
10/19/2013 Purdue 0 +27.5 at Michigan State 14
11/20/2010 Purdue 31 +20.0 at Michigan State 35
11/14/2009 Michigan State 40 - 2.5 at Purdue 37
11/ 8/2008 Purdue 7 + 9.5 at Michigan State 21
11/10/2007 Michigan State 48 + 4.0 at Purdue 31
11/ 4/2006 Purdue 17 + 3.0 at Michigan State 15
11/ 5/2005 Michigan State 21 - 5.0 at Purdue 28
11/16/2002 Purdue 45 - 4.5 at Michigan State 42
11/17/2001 Michigan State 14 + 3.0 at Purdue 24
11/11/2000 Purdue 10 - 8.0 at Michigan State 30
10/16/1999 Michigan State 28 - 2.0 at Purdue 52
11/14/1998 Purdue 25 - 2.5 at Michigan State 24
11/ 8/1997 Michigan State 21 + 3.0 at Purdue 22
8/31/1996 Purdue 14 + 3.0 at Michigan State 52
9/23/1995 Michigan State 35 + 3.0 at Purdue 35
11/12/1994 Purdue 30 + 7.5 at Michigan State 42
11/13/1993 Michigan State 27 - 9.0 at Purdue 24
11/14/1992 Purdue 13 + 3.5 at Michigan State 35
11/16/1991 Michigan State 17 + 2.0 at Purdue 27
10/27/1990 Purdue 33 +25.0 at Michigan State 55
average outcome:
Michigan State 30.8 Purdue 24.8
margin = -6.00
time-weighted average outcome:
Michigan State 26.8 Purdue 17.8
margin = -9.03
average result when the home team is Purdue
Michigan State 29.6 Purdue 31.1
margin = 1.50
average result when the home team is Michigan State
Purdue 19.9 Michigan State 31.7
margin = 11.77
44.44 % of games went Over
62.50 % went Over at Purdue
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 55.57
time-weighted average total = 44.62
the home team covered 60.87 % of the time
the road team covered 39.13 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 3.67
the favorite covered 34.78 % of the time
the underdog covered 65.22 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -3.41
the favorite won SU 77.27 % of the time
Michigan State covered 52.17 % of the time
Purdue covered 47.83 % of the time
Purdue covered 60.00 % of the time at home
Purdue covered 80.00 % of the time as home underdogs
You can see from the head to head history that Michigan State has owned Purdue recently, winning the last 8 games. But our model suggests that the outcome this week is very much in doubt, regardless of the time frame parameters used (full season data, last 4 and last 7 games).
Michigan State -3.0 19 Purdue 53.5 19 Michigan State -3.0 18 Purdue 53.5 19 Michigan State -3.0 19 Purdue 53.5 17
Below are the yards per point numbers for each team
| Mich St 12.7 | 20.6 |
| Purdue 16.9 | 18.4 |
The first number is the offensive number and the 2nd the defense. So, Michigan State scores 1 point for every 12.7 yards gained. That shows an offense for Michigan State that is much more efficient than Purdue’s. Both teams have excellent defensive numbers, though the Spartans get the edge their as well.
Yards per play is another stat worthy of your attention. Here, we have Michigan State #15 in the country with a yards per play differential of +1.3 compared to Purdue’s ranking of 75th in the country and a differential of – 0.1.
All of the little edges we look for favor Michigan State here. With any luck, the line drops in our favor as this one does have the potential to be a close one decided late.
At the moment the best money line we see is -145. We’ll wait and see if this number drops between now and kickoff. But we’re on Michigan State in this one and likely on the money line.