Redbox
San Francisco
Bowl Pick
Michigan State
vs.
Oregon
12/31/18
The San Francisco (Redbox) Bowl is a weird matchup because you never know what you’re going to get from either team. Michigan State was a mystery all season, while Oregon faltered down the stretch after looking like a legitimate Pac-12 title contender. The Ducks were -3 point favorites with an over/under of 48 (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) a week before the Game in Santa Clara.
Michigan State (4-8 ATS) had expectations to win the Big Ten, but then its offense took the field. The Spartans lost early at Arizona State and then home to Northwestern, which showed how difficult the season would be. They had a nice win at Penn State, but otherwise struggled in any other difficult matchup.
Oregon (4-8 ATS) gave away a home Game to Stanford and that could’ve been the writing on the wall, but it managed to beat Washington a couple weeks later. The Ducks then struggled in the second half of the season, losing by 29 points to Arizona and by seven at Utah.
Michigan State’s defense may be the best unit in this Game, but top cornerback Justin LAyne declared for the NFL draft and a couple other starters couple be out, making it a bad situation against Justin Herbert, who is looking to make one last good impression before the draft. The Spartans still allowed just 2.7 yards per carry, though the pass defense struggled at times and that could be the main issue.
Herbert didn’t have the best season as most of his efficiency numbers were down at 8.05 yards per attempt, but he still had 28 touchdowns and only eight picks. Given MSU’s questions on the back end, Herbert could be in for a nice Game to close out his collegiate career. Top wide out Dillon Mitchell (1,114 yards, 9 TDs) has at least 100 yards in three of the last Four Games and he’ll be the main culprit. However, that may be the only area that Oregon has success in because its ground Game struggled against any relevant defense. CJ Verdell (975 yards, 10 TDs) and Travis Dye (721 yards) had good seasons, yet often struggled in the second half of the season.
That could be the case, but MSU may not be able to move the ball in any fashion. The Ducks don’t do one thing exceptionally well defensively (27 ppg allowed), but that should be enough against this offense that never figured things out.
Quarterback Brian Lewerke struggled through injury most of the year and finished with a brutal eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions after 20 TDs and 7 INTs last season. His freshman backup Rocky Lombardi looked better at times, but had a miserable 4.79 yards per attempt. If Lewerke and the receiving core are healthy, it’s a slightly different situation because Cody White and Darrell Stewart have proven to be able receivers at times for the Spartans. Then there’s the question on the offensive line as the ground Game is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry with Connor Heyward (520 yards) set to see the bulk of carries.
All of the poor offensive stats point to an Oregon win, but MSU head coach Mark Dantonio has won five of his last six bowls for a reason with that lone loss being to Alabama in the Cotton Bowl. It’s a little different for Mario Cristobal, who was thrown into the fire in last year’s bowl, but also didn’t see much success from his time at FIU (1-1 in bowls).
The Spartans have covered in five of their last six bowl Games, but are 2-7 ATS in their last nine against the Pac-12. The Ducks are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and haven’t covered in their last six on grass.
Our Pick – UNDER 48