Orange Bowl
Pick
Oklahoma
vs.
Alabama
12/29/18
The Orange Bowl is the one everyone has been waiting for and that’s why it’s the primetime CFP Game. Not only is it two high-flying offenses and big brands, but it’s also the top two Heisman candidates facing off. Alabama was a hefty -14 point favorite with an over/under of 79.5 (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) a week before the Game in Miami.
Alabama (8-5 ATS) wasn’t challenged this year until Georgia had it on the ropes in the SEC title Game. Otherwise, the Tide beat everyone by at least 22 points and that’s the main reason the spread is where it is. Things were a little different for Oklahoma and that’s seen in its 5-7-1 mark against the spread. The Sooners didn’t have much of a defense and that led to the loss against Texas, but also close Games against Texas Tech, OK State and West Virginia. But through it all, Oklahoma is here and Kyler Murray won the Heisman.
The big news a couple weeks before the Game was that Tua Tagovailoa was ahead of Schedule and practicing on a limited basis after getting ankle surgery (he’s expected to be 100 percent for the Game). The quarterback was an absolute monster this season with 37 touchdowns and only Four interceptions on 11.41 yards per attempt. If he can return for this Game, he has the tools to torch the OU defense with Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs and Irv Smith all able to take passes to the house. The Sooners allowed a miserable 8.2 yards per attempt and 291 passing yards per Game. If Jalen Hurts gets the call, it’s a little different since he doesn’t have as good of arm, but his mobility would be a completely different problem for the defense. Of course, Alabama still averaged 5.3 yards per carry as a team with Damien (771 yards) and Najee Harris (679 yards) proving to be a formidable duo in the backfield.
since most are assuming Alabama will Scoreon the OU defense, the question comes on the other side of the ball. Oklahoma hasn’t faced a defense like Alabama’s, which gave up 14.8 points per Game, 3.4 yards per rushing attempt and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Then again, Alabama also hasn’t faced an offense quite like this as Georgia is more of a churning offense that slowly gained yardage in that matchup. But the passing lanes Jake Fromm saw could easily be there for Kyler Murray.
Speaking of Murray, the Heisman winner, his numbers were even better with 40 touchdowns and seven picks on 11.92 yards per attempt. Throw in 892 rushing yards and 11 more touchdowns and it’s easy to see why he won the award. The talent around him is also outstanding from receivers Marquise Brown (1,318 yards, 10 TDs) and CeeDee LAmb (1,049 yards, 10 TDs) to running backs Kennedy Brooks (1,021 yards, 12 TDs) and Trey Sermon (928 yards, 12 TDs). Alabama has a good defense, but this offense also hasn’t been stopped yet against teams that face Lincoln Riley’s offense every year.
The Tide deserve to be favored by two touchdowns, but it wouldn’t be surprising if both offenses had success in this Game, similar to recent Clemson-Alabama matchups. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the SEC, but 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on a neutral site. The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
Our Pick – Typically in a spot like this, such a huge Game with everything on the line, we’d look to take two full TD’s with the #1 offense in the land. In fact, historically, at least 80% of Our Key Releases for any given year, are underdogs.
Put another way, underdogs have been the Key to Our very successful, 30+ year college football betting career. As we say often in a spot like this, the back door is aways open.
Unlike when you wager on a large fav, when you back a big dog, you can be wrong, and still win. Here, Alabama could dominate from start to finish yet give up a late garbage TD or two and there goes your cover.
We’ve played far more favorites this year than probably, any other year ever. That likely explains why this has been a losing campaign for us this year.
We are generally very uncomfortable laying two TD’s in any football Game, especially one of this magnitude. Hey, if Oklahoma pulled the outright upset, woud it really be that much of a shock? Of course not. These are two big time football programs playing for the right to play in the title Game.
So brace yourself, because we are going to lay the big number with the Crimson Tide.
Offensively, no one will argue the legitiMACy of the Oklahoma offense. In terms of yards gained and points scored they were #1 in the land. Though it’s worth noting that they only beat out Alabama by a nose in those categories. It’s also worth noting that using yards per point to grade the offenses, Alabama was #2 and the Sooners were #11.
Offensively, we’re splitting hairs trying to compare. They were both fantastic.
But where we are not splitting hairs, is on the defensive side of the ball.
Consider this. There were 78 college football teams playing in Bowl Games this year. Of those teams, around 70 of them had BETTER DEFENSIVE NUMBERS THAN OKLAHOMA.
There’s no questioning the Alabama defense. Alabama was great on both sides of the ball while the Sooners were great on only one. We’ll take two greats over one great.
Our model agrees. We use three different time frame parameters with Our model. Stats from the full season, the last 7 Games and the last 4 Games. Here are Our model’s predictions with each parameter.
Full Season – Alabama 59 Oklahoma 24
Last 7 Games – Alabama 63 Oklahoma 22
Last 4 Games – Alabama 73 Oklahoma 37
I suppose the cherry on top would be this. Over the course of a 30 year career, you develop contacts. Associates, friends. All very sharp bettors. In spots like this, you come to learn what they are doing, if anything, with the Game. Many of those guys started betting Alabama without blinking right from the opener of -13.5 and are even willing to lay more than -14.
Now, we have spent a little more time on this Game than we typically do. That is because of the magnitude of this Game and the interest in it. NOT because we like this Game more than any other. A play is a play whether it’s Alabama or Akron. Don’t go overboard just because it’s the biggest college football Game of the year to date!
Alabama -14