Music City
Bowl Pick
Purdue
vs.
Auburn
12/28/18
Not many could have projected the two Music City Bowl teams ahead of the season, or even a few weeks into the season. Instead, it’s one of the more interesting matchups of the early Games between Purdue and Auburn. The Tigers were -3.5 point favorites with an over/under of 55 (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) a week before the Game in Nashville.
Purdue (7-5 ATS) started the season with three straight close losses, but is now riding high after winning at Indiana in the finale to reach six wins, and also because Jeff Brohm spurned Louisville. The Boilers highlighted their season with wins over Ohio State and Iowa, yet had some sketchy results, including a loss by 31 points to Minnesota in the final month.
Auburn (5-7 ATS) had a little more hope after beating Washington in the opener, but things quickly fell apart once the SEC Schedule picked up. The Tigers can’t be faulted for losses to Georgia and Alabama, but the home loss to Tennessee was the ultimate dagger. This team has more overall talent because of who it is, but it hasn’t put that together all season. Maybe the big thing is that head coach Gus Malzahn has decided to take over offensive play calling, which could end up having immediate effects.
Of course, quarterback Jarrett Stidham (13 TDs, 5 INTs) has still been a massive disappointment with an ugly 6.96 yards per attempt. Nothing worked for the passing Game no matter the opponent even with guys like Ryan Davis and Darius Slayton to throw to. Those struggles bled to the ground Game, which only averaged 4.3 yards per carry behind freshman JaTarvious Whitlow (777 yards), who looks like a future stud. The good news is that Purdue doesn’t have a good defense, no matter what it showed against Ohio State. This group still struggled in most Games giving up 4.4 yards per carry and 442 total yards per Game.
And while Purdue’s offense can be electric, it was still extremely inconsistent, from running up the Scoreagainst OSU and Wisconsin to combining for 23 points against Michigan State and Minnesota. Auburn has a talented group that only allowed 3.8 yards per rush attempt and 19.6 points per Game, but was somewhat disappointing against better teams.
This will be a good test for Brohm’s offense led by David Blough, who had a great season with 8.29 yards per attempt, 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He was perfect for the offense that focused around freshman stud Rondale Moore (103 receptions, 1,164 yards, 12 touchdowns) and deep threats Isaac Zico and Brycen Hopkins. Throw in a ground Game that averaged 4.5 yards per carry between D.J. Knox (868 yards) and Markell Jones (502 yards) and this was a complete group.
Then again, Purdue needed all 12 Games to make it to a bowl and its inconsistencies were a problem all season. This team could explode for an upset with the help of Moore, or it could have issues against a bigger and faster team.
The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS In their last eight non-Conference Games and 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral-site Games and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-Conference Games.
Our Pick – Auburn -3.5