Georgia
vs.
Florida
College Football
Free Pick
10/27/18
This is arguably the biggest Game of the weekend between two teams in the AP Poll Top 10. It not only has SEC title Game implications, but also for the College Football Playoff as a loss would take either of these teams out of the race. The Bulldogs were -7.5 point favorites with an over/under of 51 as of Monday (at YOUWAGER Sportsbook) for the Game in Jacksonville.
It’s hard to put anything into last year’s matchup when Georgia ran away with the Game early in a 42-7 route that Jake Fromm only needed to attempt seven passes in. This one will undoubtedly be different since Florida looks like a competent team again under Dan Mullen, sitting with the same record as Georgia at 6-1. Their most impressive win came against LSU, but the Gators have already won three road Games in SEC play. That’s a relevant stat because they don’t have any more true road SEC Games and a win in this matchup could prove vital.
It’s a little different for Georgia, which ran through everyone and then got handled by LSU in a 20-point road loss. The Bulldogs still have to travel to Kentucky next week, which have the same record as these two teams, and also host Auburn. All signs point to this matchup being a tight battle with both teams allowing less than 17 points per Game, but the last Four meetings have been decided by at least 14 points. When one team finds an edge, they run with it and that’s how LSU dominated Georgia.
Surprisingly, both teams are allowing 4.2 yards per carry and that stat could end up deciding the Game. The Bulldogs are averaging 5.8 ypc as a team with Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift leading the way and if those two guys get going, this team is hard to beat. They both had some success against LSU, but Jake Fromm wasn’t good and threw a couple picks. The question remains for Fromm if he can actually produce against good defenses in close Games because while he has solid numbers with 9.52 yards per attempt, the LSU Game was the first time he was forced into more action. If the Gators can make a couple stops on the ground and make Fromm do more, that’s a problem for Georgia.
Of course, it’s the same situation on the other end because Feleipe Franks is by no means a good quarterback, completing just 56.6% of his passes and he only had 161 yards in the win against LSU. The big thing for the Gators is that they’ve become dominant on the ground with Jordan SCarlett, LAmical Perine and Dameon Pierce all having success and that was the main reason they beat LSU. Georgia was run over by LSU and there’s no telling how the defense will play in this Game.
This is a true test for coaches Dan Mullen and Kirby Smart with both coming off the bye week. Smart is the favorite, but it’s still unclear how good Georgia is after the loss to LSU. The Gators have covered in their last five overall, while the Bulldogs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a bye week, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a straight-up loss. Florida is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the under has hit in five of the last seven.
Our Pick – Florida +7