Florida
vs.
Vanderbilt
College Football
Pick
10/13/18
Florida just had a huge win against LSU, but it can’t take its foot off the pedal with this trip to Vanderbilt followed by Georgia. This Game against Vandy appears to be a classic trap and that’s somewhat seen in the odds. The Gators were just -7.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 51 as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The spread is only a touchdown, but with it being between LSU and Georgia in the Schedule, Dan Mullen has a big task on his hands. It also doesn’t help that the Gators barely beat Miss. State in their last road Game and also lost at home to Kentucky, so it’s not like they are at the same level as Georgia, a team that just destroyed Vandy 41-13. That said, Vandy also lost 37-14 at home to South Carolina and that’s the main reason to take Florida in this matchup.
In last year’s meeting, the Gators dominated, though still only won 38-24. It should’ve been worse given that they ran for 218 yards and held the Commodores to 46, but Kyle Shurmur passed for three touchdowns while completing less than 50 percent of his passes. To compete in this one, that Vandy run defense will need to step up and that’s not a given as they’re allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 165 rushing yards per Game.
The Gators will again turn to running backs Jordan SCarlett and LAmical Perine and those guys were the key to beating LSU. They both average five yards per carry for an offense that averages 5.2 ypc as a team. There’s a good chance Florida rushes for around 200 yards again and that will immediately put Vanderbilt in a hole. But the equalizer remains Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks, whose numbers are slightly better than a year ago, yet still not overwhelming. In last year’s meeting he was still splitting time with LUke Del Rio so improved quarterback play could be useful this time around.
The only way the Commodores have a chance is if they can find room on the ground and that may be possible. The Gators haven’t been great against the run this year allowing 172 yards per contest on 4.1 yards per carry and while they held this offense to 2.3 ypc last season, it could be different this time for Vandy, especially at home. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is their biggest playmaker as he’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry and five touchdowns. Khari BlasinGame and Jamauri Wakefield will see some touches, but Vaughn has been the most explosive running back. To pull an upset, that’s going to fall to quarterback Kyle Shurmur and top wide out Kalija Lipscomb. Shurmur’s numbers are near 2017’s level, though he hasn’t produced against any decent defense. He lived off chunk plays in last year’s matchup and may have to again.
This is a classic trap Game for Florida and if Vandy can get more from its running Game, there’s no reason it can’t at least keep this Game competitive, unlike its prior SEC Games. When these teams met in Nashville two years ago, the home team covered in a 13-6 loss.
The Gators have covered in their last Four, but haven’t covered in their last six on field turf. The Commodores are a miserable 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these schools and the over has hit in 10 of the last 13.
Our Pick – Florida -7