Michigan
vs.
Michigan State
Big 10
Football Pick
10/20/18
The battle for Michigan may end up being one of the more important results in the Big Ten this season. Michigan, undefeated in Conference play, is looking to replace Ohio State at the top of the standings and can only do that if it continues to win leading up to their meeting in the regular-season finale. As for Michigan State, it’s coming off an impressive win at Penn State and has its own plans to win the Big Ten, especially with home Games against UM and OSU. The Wolverines still opened as decent -6.5 point road favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
This spread seems large for a number of reasons mostly because the Spartans have covered in the last 10 meetings. That includes the last three in which MSU was an underdog by at least seven points, winning two outright, including last year’s 14-10 rain-soaked victory in Ann Arbor. There’s always plenty of money on Michigan because it’s a more popular team, but there’s no reason this Game won’t be competitive.
Michigan’s offense is better than last year’s group and that’s seen in 38.1 points per Game, but there are still questions about the group. For starters, the Wolverines haven’t topped 20 points in either of their two road Games and while they’ve scored in bunches in the other contests, none of those were against great defenses as Wisconsin’s has been surprisingly disappointing this year. To win and cover this Game, Michigan needs quarterback Shea Patterson to do what he was brought in for. He’s been solid, though hasn’t been asked to do much with 10 touchdowns and three picks on 8.25 yards per attempt. As of note, nine of those touchdowns have come against WMU, SMU and Maryland.
Patterson will be needed in this Game because MSU has one of the best rush defenses in the country, allowing just 62.3 yards per contest, but close to 300 yards through the air. Even after giving up a couple big runs to Miles Sanders last week, they held tight and contained Trace McSorley and company to 17 points. Michigan will still try and ride Karan Higdon (687 yards, 6 TDs), but if he doesn’t reach 100 yards for the sixth straight Game, Patterson will be tasked with a bigger role and that’s not an easy thing to bet on, even against this shaky secondary.
Of course, the Spartans have their own issues on the other side of the ball against a defense that’s allowing 15.4 points and a ridiculous 129 passing yards per Game. The UM defense completely handled Wisconsin last week and it doesn’t help the Spartans that their run Game has had issues all season behind a beat up and inconsistent offensive line. Even if running back LJ SCott returns from injury, there’s no guarantee this group will be able to churn out yards on the ground. Then you throw in the injuries at wide receiver and Brian Lewerke’s seven interceptions and it’ll be hard to top 20 points for this offense.
Then again, even when this team finished with three wins, it still managed to move the ball against an undefeated Michigan team two years ago. Mark Dantonio always has his sights set on this Game and he’s the main reason to bet on Michigan State in this matchup.
The Wolverines haven’t covered in their last Four road Games, while the Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five at home. Michigan State has won outright eight of the last 10 meetings between these schools and has covered the last five played in East LAnsing.
Our Pick – Michigan -6.5