The Final Four is upon us, and this Saturday, April 5th, at 8:49 PM EST, we’ve got a blockbuster matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and the Houston Cougars. With Duke listed as a -4.5 favorite and the total set at 136, this game promises to be a clash of styles—Duke’s high-octane offense against Houston’s suffocating defense.
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Full Season Prediction: Duke 64, Houston 66 (Total: 130)
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Last 4 Games Prediction: Duke 78, Houston 74 (Total: 152)
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Last 7 Games Prediction: Duke 68, Houston 71 (Total: 139)
The full-season model leans slightly toward Houston pulling off the upset, while the last seven games also favors the Cougars covering the +4.5 spread. The last four games, however, see Duke flexing its muscle with a higher-scoring affair. For this analysis, we’ll zero in on the full-season and last-seven-game predictions, as they provide a broader sample size and better reflect these teams’ identities heading into the Final Four.
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Offensive Efficiency: Duke (1.222) vs. Houston (1.132)
Duke has the edge here, ranking among the nation’s elite in points per possession. Houston’s offense is no slouch but relies more on grinding out possessions than overwhelming opponents with firepower. -
Defensive Efficiency: Duke (0.914) vs. Houston (0.891)
Houston’s defense is marginally better, allowing fewer points per possession. Both teams excel at shutting down opponents, but the Cougars’ physicality could disrupt Duke’s rhythm. -
Shooting Percentage: Duke (49.6%) vs. Houston (45.4%)
Duke’s shooters are lethal, boasting a nearly 50% clip from the field. Houston lags behind but compensates with volume and second-chance opportunities. -
Opponent Shooting Percentage: Duke (38.5%) vs. Houston (38.2%)
This is a wash—both defenses clamp down, forcing tough shots and contesting everything. -
Possessions Per Game: Duke (68.5) vs. Houston (65.4)
Duke prefers a slightly faster pace, which could stretch Houston’s defense if the Blue Devils capitalize on transition opportunities. -
Houston has faced a tougher slate, which might give them an edge in handling the pressure of a Final Four environment.
Using these stats, let’s simulate the game. Duke’s offensive efficiency (1.222) applied to Houston’s defensive efficiency (0.891) and pace (68.5 possessions) suggests the Blue Devils could score around 68-70 points. Flip it around, and Houston’s offense (1.132) against Duke’s defense (0.914) at 65.4 possessions projects them in the 67-69 range. Factor in shooting percentages and schedule strength, and we’re looking at a tight, low-scoring battle—think Duke 68, Houston 67, aligning closely with the last-seven-game prediction.
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Against the Spread (Duke -4.5): The full-season model has Houston winning outright (66-64), while the last-seven-game prediction sees them covering with a 71-68 loss. Duke’s offense is potent, but Houston’s defense has a knack for mucking things up, especially against teams with tougher schedules. At +4.5, the Cougars are a live underdog. We’ll take Houston +4.5 as the play—Duke might win, but it’ll be closer than the spread suggests.
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Over/Under (136): The full-season prediction (130) and last-seven-game projection (139) straddle the total.
Given both teams’ elite defenses and the likelihood of a slower, grind-it-out pace in a high-stakes game, the under is the way to go. Our simulation landed at 135, just shy of the line. Take the Under 136 with confidence.
Our Pick Houston +4.5 and UNDER 136