The hardwood rivalry between Virginia and Virginia Tech resumes tomorrow in a heated edition of the Commonwealth Clash. The Cavaliers and Hokies possess a storied history of competitive battles, and this installment promises more of the same. Virginia opened as a -2.5 point favorite with a total of 128.
Historical Edge: Virginia
The Virginia Cavaliers hold a significant all-time advantage in the series, leading their in-state rivals 97-59. UVA possesses a dominant 42-13 home record against the Hokies in Charlottesville and an 11-4 record at John Paul Jones Arena. Virginia’s methodical pace and defensive prowess have consistently given Virginia Tech trouble.
Recent Trends: Hokies Closing the Gap
While historically one-sided, the last decade has seen the rivalry intensify. Virginia Tech seeks to close the gap and reverse recent fortunes. Here’s how the last 10 matchups unfolded:
2023-24 2024-01-17 Virginia Virginia Tech W 65 57
2022-23 2023-02-04 Virginia @ Virginia Tech L 68 74
2022-23 2023-01-18 Virginia Virginia Tech W 78 68
2021-22 2022-02-14 Virginia @ Virginia Tech L 53 62
2021-22 2022-01-12 Virginia Virginia Tech W 54 52
2020-21 2021-01-30 Virginia @ Virginia Tech 20 L 51 65
2019-20 2020-02-26 Virginia @ Virginia Tech W 56 53
2019-20 2020-01-04 Virginia Virginia Tech W 65 39
2018-19 2019-02-18 Virginia @ Virginia Tech 20 W 64 58
2018-19 2019-01-15 Virginia Virginia Tech 9 W 81 59
Tomorrow’s Matchup: What to Expect
Virginia, led by head coach Tony Bennett, enters the game aiming to rebound and protect their home court. Balanced scoring and their trademark pack-line defense will be crucial in slowing down the Hokies. Virginia Tech, looking to make further inroads in the rivalry, will hope their recent shooting success carries over.
Model Score Predictions
Below are the score predictions from our model. There are 3 predictions. The first uses full season data. The 2nd uses data from the last 4 games only and the 3rd prediction uses data from the last 7 games only.
For college hoops, current form is very important. We’d advise weighing the 3rd prediction more heavily!
Virginia 127.5 59 Virginia Tech -2.5 64 Virginia 127.5 73 Virginia Tech -2.5 70 Virginia 127.5 66 Virginia Tech -2.5 65
The model prediction that uses data from the last 7 games only has Virginia pulling the outright upset. That’s that way we’ll go in this one despite the early betting action favoring Tech.