Holiday Bowl
Pick
Northwestern
vs.
Utah
12/31/18
The Holiday Bowl is a matchup of two teams that play almost the same role in their respective conferences and they both lost in their title Games. Both Northwestern and Utah are based around their defenses while also focusing on running the ball as much as possible. That didn’t stop the Utes from being a -7.5 point favorite with an over/under of 46 (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) for the Game in San Diego.
Utah (7-6 ATS) gets the proximity edge, but that’s not saying much. The Utes never truly looked like the best team in the Pac-12, yet made it to the title Game due to the weakness of the South division. They opened with losses to both Washington schools and then went on to win seven of the next eight, but had an 18-point loss at Arizona State. They had some nice wins, but also lost all three Games to arguably the best teams in the conference.
Northwestern (6-5-2 ATS) isn’t much different in that aspect, though had some bad early losses to Akron and Duke. At the least, the Wildcats were competitive against the best teams in the Conference and just didn’t have enough offense to compete with Ohio State in the championship Game. Most impressive were the two road wins against Michigan State and Iowa, two of the best defenses in the Big Ten.
That’s relevant because Utah’s defense is in the same mold as those teams, allowing just 18.5 points per Game and 3.0 yards per carry. It’s not that Northwestern has a good offense, it’s just that this group seemed to do enough in every Game, failing to Scoremore than 24 points in its final five Games. Senior quarterback Clayton Thorson didn’t show much improvement with 6.41 yards per attempt for 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, as he simply ran the offense with the help of senior wide out Flynn Nagel. The Wildcats will try and lean on Isaiah Bowser (796 yards, 6 TDs) as much as possible after he became the full-time running back in the seventh Game. Even in Games when he averaged around three yards per carry, he still managed to see the ball close to 30 times and that’s what will be the case in this Game.
It’s kind of the same situation on the other side with the only difference being that Northwestern’s defense didn’t have as good of numbers. Of course, some of that has to do with better competition, but it allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt and 258 passing yards per Game, both subpar rates.
The main question for the Utah offense is the status of quarterback Tyler Huntley, who was questionable a week before the Game due to a collarbone injury. In his absence over the final Four Games, Utah got similar production from Jason Shelley, so it’s a wonder how much of a difference that will make. Top running back Zack Moss is also a question due to a knee injury and his 6.1 yards per carry was much better than backup Armand Shyne (4.5 ypc), so that’s another thing to keep an eye on. Utah’s offense has more potency than Northwestern’s, but the quality of defense isn’t the same in the Pac-12 and that could limit some things the Utes can do.
Then there’s the ridiculous stat of Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham being 11-1 in bowl Games compared Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald who is 3-5 (won the last two). Either way, this Game has the makings of being lower scoring and close, as both teams play the same way with Utah being slightly more talented depending on injuries.
The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but 0-3-1 ATS in their last Four non-Conference Games. The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Big Ten and 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl Games. As of note, Utah played the Big Ten’s Indiana in a bowl two years ago and won 26-24 as an 8-point favorite.
Our Pick – Northwestern +7