Call me crazy. I know it's two weeks away, and I haven't picked the game apart yet, but I can make a case for the Giants winning this game straght up....

I can also make a case for Toomer to get his mason's license. Can there be a worse set of hands on any WR at any level of football? This doosh is a bricklayer of epic proportions. Maybe McQuarters and Toomer can start their own business? Butter fingered phux.

Yeah, maybe they can get Ruvell Martin to join them.

I said a long time ago and then again recently that I didn't think the Pats would go undefeated. Their play, although obviously good enough to win, has been on the decline for quite awhile. They could have lost any number of games in the last 9 or so. I would not be surprised in the least if the Giants beat them.

NY Giants 54
New England -13

at sports.com

Major disappointment for a superbowl...wouldn`t shock me if the Giants get blown away by 20 + points....but then again...who knows....

Fantatstic Super Bowl matchup. Thank god. Glad it's not the Packers. The Patriots would have blown the Packers out by 30+

Let us remember the last game of the season between these two teams. 38-35 and over 700 total combined yds of offense. That was a heck of a game.

The Pats should have also been beaten by the Ravens AND the Jets...now lets look ahead...The Pats...The BIG STAGE..TOM BRADY..RANDY MOSS..this is a position they THRIVE in...The Giants beat a weakened and young Cowboys team that deteriorated down the stretch...Green Bay, a team that got slapped around by Chicago in VERY COLD weather..and lost to the Giants..in VERY COLD weather....Favre looked like he was 50 years old in those games..as a HUGE Pats hater..I am sucking up my pride here and admitting they are a superior team and will win the superbowl...now I`m gonna go throw up!

I feel the same way about the Patriots, but like you say, we're witnessing NFL history here, so why fight it?...........I seriously think they've been going through the motions the last few weeks.........They look complacent for a bit, and then as soon as they get behind - boom, they score at will.............And it will be no different in biggest game yet.............I think Bill Bellichick, the great coach that he is, forces game film down his team's throat of the last game with the Giants, to correct all of the mistakes they made when the Giants made it a closer game that it should have been...........They won't be taking Eli and company as lightly this time around..........Patriots easy.

What about the fact that the pats haven't covered in something like their last 8 games? They are good, and no doubt they will win, but I don't see them running away with it. They have been good enough to win, but they haven't had that killer instinct...where they put teams away by 30. The line is simply to high. For a pats cover the line needs to be around 10. Plus, the Giants have won 3 straight as dogs, and were not covered by the Pats the last time these 2 teams met. Throw in the fact that its a super bowl and both teams are likely to be a little more cautious with the ball....i say this one stays within 2 scores all the way...now that could be 10..or 14..but i'm leaning toward 10.

I also must say that I am still not a believer in the Giants. I am a Packer fan and was so disgusted that they lost to the Giants I swore i wouldn't even watch the super bowl. Yes, the giants played the Pats tough the first time but I just don't believe that they are any good at all. I hate the cowboys but i would rather see them in this game than the g-men because I just don't think the giants will truly have a shot to win. They may keep it close but they won't win. I liked the Packers and Cowboys chances of possibly winning. But in all honesty the only team that truly could have beaten the pats is the colts and they fell on their face. At least I don't have to watch a Manning V Manning super bowl. Talk about gag me. I like Peyton, and think he's one of the greatest. Eli is no better than a Kerry collins or Trent Dilfer. A game manager that if he doesn't make mistakes can lead a good enough team to victory.

I like the pats 34-24. Game never in doubt. Pats up by 2 scores 1st qtr on. Only reason to watch is for the commercials. Still not sure if i will.....

Yeah i think just about everyone had the Cowboys or the Packers representing the NFC, but this game is weird to say the least..........But I'll tell you one thing -- even though I don't see this happening......If Eli Manning would get lucky enough to win this Super Bowl, having two brothers win in it back-to-back years would be a record that would NEVER, EVER, NEVER, EVER be broken...........Unless it was by those two again of course............Just a silly observation from my bored ass.

I have to play the Pats...I have sucke din the playoffs, no doubt, but I will let the Giant backers bring the line down to where it looks good, and then I will jump on the Pats. Down to 12 or even 11.5 at some books as I type. I would love to grab a 10 but probably won;t happen.

I just do not see the Giants hanging at all in this one.

Eli has burned me twice so far, so I might as well try one more time instead of go with him. I am not putting any larger bet than what I usually play b/c the super bowl is just 1 game, but I do like the Pats - whatever it settles at.

Damn...shoulda grabbed 13 while I could.

I think if the Patriots played the Giants 10 times.

Giants would win 2 out of 10 (20%)
Patriots would win by 15 or more (35%)
Patriots winning 14 or less (45%)

I think Eli has something he's been lacking since he arrived. CONFIDENCE!!
Brady has been sub-par.

Patriots may come out tight trying to go undefeated.
The Giants will come out loose and aggresive...nothing to lose.

I would bet $500 and the Giants +13 or 14
$100 Giants and the under

PREDICTION
NE 24
Giants 20

Yeah, I don't see this being the shootout they had in Week 17. I think the total is a little high at 54. Most first meeting shootouts this year were followed by lower scoring second matchups.

I disagree about the total. I can easily see a couple of big plays, a couple of INTs from eli ( I see him overwhelmed) creating short fields, and the pedal to the metal mentality to keep trying to pour it on regardless of the score.

I am pulling for the Giants but have to play NE w/over.

I'll dissect props at three shops and find a couple of juicy ones as my main plays.

Eli is no longer a deer in the headlights. He's reading the D, calling audibles, seeing the field, seeing the defenders, feeling the pass rush and moving and throwing much more accurately.

Brady and that O are going to be tough. They will move the ball and score. Giants need to make those FGs, not TDs.

Pats D is not that good. They are old and slow. No one can cover Plax. If they double him, Toomer and Smith will do fine. Giants will be able to score between 27 and 31.

Now, you have to ask yourself one question. Will that be enough?

I like the over.

I don't know which Giants D shows up. They could get rolled. Or they may play nickel the whole game and bend but not break.

Brady looked very bored in the Charger game. Maybe he was in some pain because of the ankle.

Pressure is on the Pats.

GL

The way i look at the super bowl is as the largest public event of the year. I read a couple articles on this and the lines are adjusted to accomodate the public where as in the regular season, they are set for the sharps.

What is the largest public play? Favorite and the Over. So the oddsmakers shade the line that way.

Sharp bettors know there is not much value in the super bowl and it is just another game amongst the 1000's of a betting year.

But the Fav and the Over has alos won at a good clip in the past 10-15 years too so its not saying the public is not right sometimes.

So knowing this, I have to take a look at the Giants and the Under, but knowing I think the pats will blow them out, I may have to pass or just play the Under.

Most likely I will key on a couple props that have some value, such as the longest punt...It opened at 42.5 and I got an e-mail from Kevin O'Neil b/c I am a Max sunscriber saying to bang the OVER hard. Within minutes, it was off the board, Not even on the board at my books, and now it is up to 49.5 (-210). The under is +170 and I think worth a shot.

Personally I think you can find better betting value on the props and paly a few of those rather than playing the game itself. And certianly I will not put more than 1/2 unit on any play involving the super bowl--There is probably a hoops game that day that may be worth a shot over than the de-valued SB.

(I got some of this info from Robert Ferringo over at Docs sports from his article posted the other day on super bowl betting-check it out for more great info-I gave you the cliff notes version.)

I still think Las Vegas is way off on the spread.

Neutral Field laying -14

If this game was in New England would you lay -17 ????

If this game was in New York would you lay 11 on the road???

I think the odds maker was going off the past like mentioned above....public historically loves favorite and the over and there is a huge value
going Dog and the under.

I give this game NYG plus the points 3***'s.

If you got it early NYG +14 then 4****'s.

I went 3-0 on 4**** picks this year....didn't have any 5* picks.

I'm also 7-3 (70%) this post season....and about 48% regular season (sub-par)...

Good luck all!!!

Well the SB has been known for high scores but looking back on the past year.
Out of all the games where teams faced each other twice:
1) There were 15 times where the total of game 1 was over 50. Only twice was the total in the second game higher than the first game. (and one of those was Jax/Hou...a meaning less game for Jax at the end of the year where Hou blew them out)
2) only 5 times were both totals over 50 (one of those was that Jax/Hou game)
3) only twice was the second total over the current SB line of 54 (with one of those again being that same Jax/Hou)
4) The average score in those 15 first meetings where the total was over 50 was a whopping 64.9. The average in the second meetings was only 47.6
5) Of the 4 pathetic teams NE faced twice, never was the total over 50 in both games.

What does this tell us? Probably absolutely nothing. This is the Super Bowl and you can throw out what happened in the regular season. Right?

I guess. But I think it does go to show that,
1) if you give up a lot of points in game 1 you might be more focused not to do it again.
2) You make adjustments to correct the previous games problem areas.
3) You are more familiar with what the other team threw at you last time.

So maybe all of this helps to keep the scores significantly lower in the second meetings. Maybe it doesn't apply here because it's the Super Bowl, I don't know but I still get the feeling this one stays under 54.

BTW, the line in Week 17 was,
New England Patriots -14.5
New York Giants 44

Don't really have much time for a big write-up today but the more I look at it, the more I see the UNDER on this game as well.............The Patriots will pressure Manning like he didn't see from Dallas or Green Bay and his game will be turned upside down...........You'll see alot of Brandon Jacobs early, and some desperate passes late.........I got the feeling this will be a boring game by half time and you better stack alot of beer and eats to keep the party interesting.........This has the makings of a 38-10 victory for the Patriots, and I don't think the game will ever be in doubt.........Brady will pick apart the inept Giants secondary, something that I can't for the life of me --figure why the Packers and Romo didn't exploit.........These guys can't cover a spread offense, but nobody but Bellichick will figure that out.........I'll be very surprised if Brady doesn't throw for at least 350 yards in this game, but he may not have to the way Maroney's been trucking up and down the field.........A blowout boys, trust me on this one.

I have to agree Boone. Even as a Giants fan, I felt we had a good chance to sneak past Tampa, but I thought it would end in Dallas and certainly in Green Bay. It has been a fun ride as a result of the surprise nature of the victories, since I was prepareds for the worst.

Despite having the lesser of the talent, the NY coaches have out-coached their counterparts in Dallas and Green Bay. I don't expect we can out-coach Belichick,

I've been surprised that we have been able to somehow cover the weakness in our secondary. But Webster and Ross are getting better every week and Madison is back. That makes a decent nickel. Wilson is good but Butler is awful.

Can we double Moss and take him out of the game like Jax and SD have done and contain NE to Welker, Faulk and Maroney and FGs instead of TDs? That's the key.

And on O, Eli we will have to have a mixed attack and have better redzone efficiency than the Pats. With Plax, Toomer, Smith, Boss, Jacobs and Bradshaw, it's possible.

The NE O is championship caliber for sure. But not the D. They are old and slow in places and it may tell. They will have to find a way to take Plax out of the game or he will scorch Hobbs or Samuel worse than he did Al Harris.

I think the Giants can score 27-31 points. Problem is, I could see the Pats scoring 41 or more, unless the Giants play bend but not break and hold them to a few FGs instead of TDs and only 23-27 points.

Again, I am fearing the worst, but now I have this glimmer of hope that something special is brewing. This Giants team has a certain something now. Is it enough to overcome what is a great Pats team that is always well prepared and seldom, if ever, lets down in a big game?

Nice write up 'Strides and Good Luck to you and your boys..........You know, deep down I think the majority of us are pulling for the upset and the underdog Giants along with Eli, I mean, who doesn't want to see Brady get his cocky ass knocked around and see Bellichick lose a big one for a change, and see the Patriots perfect season get ruined, but I lost of bets as a kid by letting my heart get in the way of my wallet -- and I think if they were gonna get beat this year, they would have already...........time will tell.