Utah State
vs.
Tennessee
College Football
Week 1 Pick
8/31/14
To fill the Sunday night void until the NFL kicks off, we have college football to keep us entertained. In this Sunday night matchup, we have an interesting Game between the Utah State Aggies and the Tennessee Vols. The Game is in Knoxville and the Vols are -6.5 favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 51.
A Game like this to start the year is always intriguing. You have an SEC team in the Vols, looking to become relevant again going up against a Utah State team that had been a habitual loser until they started turning heads back in the 2010 season.
The Vols will be relevant again. Someday. Hard to say for sure when that might be. They have had just one winning season since 2008 and that was just barely (7-6 in 2009). They’ve had 3 consecutive 5-7 seasons and have changed coaches 4 times since 2008 in their search for stability. Currently it’s Butch Jones at the helm in his 2nd year. Is Butch the answer? We shall see. But stability won’t come until a coach is at least allowed to put his stamp on the team, which generally tales 3 to 4 years.
Utah State has a 2nd year coach as well in Matt Wells. They also must deal with losing several key players on both sides of the ball and when that happens at a program like Utah State it creates a huge question mark. This isn’t USC or Alabama where the talent simply rolls over. They do have a couple of fantastic QB’s. One, a Heisman hopeful a year ago, Chuckie Keaton, returns after going down with a season ending injury a year ago.
History can teach us a few things here. Specifically, while teams like Utah State could never compete on a week to week basis in a Conference like the SEC, due to lack of depth, they can certainly compete in a one Game scenario. Boise State comes to mind to prove that point. Other teams over the years, such as Fresno State, have also proved that when given a shot under the bright lights, they should be taken seriously.
Just look at Utah States recent steps up in class over the years. Last year they came within a field goal of USC. The year before it was a 2 point loss to Wisconsin. In 2011 they opened their season with a 4 point loss to Auburn and in 2010 they shocked the college football world by losing to #7 Oklahoma in their season opener, as 34 point underdogs. All of those Games were on the road, like this one.
Proving that they can compete with these top teams means the world to a program like Utah State. It does wonders for the recruiting process and when given all this time to prepare for their opener, it makes it a dangerous spot for the Vols.
Had this Game been played a year ago, Our Score Prediction model would have had the Vols on top, but by just 1 point. The model predicts a 23-22 Tennessee win, using last years data with a few tweaks. That’s the type of prediction that the model has always been strong with. Underdogs it picks to win straight up or lose by a point or two. If this Game was played a year ago, we’d be all over Utah State.
That being said, we have to take a step back and just watch this one. There are simply too many new faces starting for both squads to make last years data reliable. Our gut feeling in this one is that Utah State will make a good showing for a quarter or two, but the Vols will likely wear them down and take over in the 2nd half, covering the -6.5 point spot. So we’ll side with Tennessee here but this is just a gut feeling opinion. Should be an interesting one to watch. Tennessee -6.5